As the aviation industry’s aircraft shortage worsens globally, the International Air Transport Association has said aircraft ordered by airlines during the year may not be delivered by the manufacturers until 2040, 15 years from now.
IATA made this known through its website over the weekend while reviewing the challenge of capacity facing the aviation industry globally.
In December, IATA’s Director-General, Willie Walsh, had noted that supply chain issues were frustrating players in the industry, saying the performance will negatively affect the airline’s performance in 2025.
The association in its latest report said aircraft and critical component manufacturers have continued to struggle to restore output to pre-pandemic levels following severe and lasting disruptions of global supply chains.
The body of professionals in a statement added that despite increasing traffic which has surpassed the pre-pandemic era, aircraft supplies still maintained a low 30 per cent supply.
The statement read, “Passenger load factors also reached a historic high of 83.5% in 2024. These efficiency gains are critical in sustaining profitability amid supply constraints and will remain a key factor when delivery bottlenecks ease and airlines can resume capacity growth.
“By the end of 2024, the global order backlog had reached an unprecedented 17,000 aircraft, equivalent to 50 per cent of the current fleet—far exceeding the historical norm of one-third.
“At current production levels, it would take more than 13 years to clear the existing backlog, meaning aircraft ordered today may not be delivered until nearly 2040—well beyond typical airline planning horizons.
“This makes short-term capacity planning extremely challenging, which could potentially lead to inefficiencies and higher costs.”
Findings have shown that the global shortage of aircraft has been pushing up fares and forcing airlines to keep older planes flying longer. Some carriers, such as Emirates Airlines, have invested billions of dollars to retrofit their older jets as they await delayed deliveries of new aircraft.
Airlines around the world have struggled to increase capacity in response to rising travel demand as supplies of jetliners are limited by parts shortages, industry-wide hiring problems, and overloaded repair shops.
Experts’ checks of Boeing and Airbus aircraft shortages show 466 fewer narrowbodies were built than planned from mid-2022 to the beginning of 2023, as supply chains slow down the manufacturers’ production rates.
“This deficit could rise to about 825 aircraft by 2025 and more than 1,100 by 2026 if supply-chain glitches continue to limit manufacturers,” the statement further read.
In its release, IATA also noted that with the shortage in the delivery of new aircraft, airline operators have begun to turn to lessors for aircraft deals, but the situation has spread its tentacles to lessors’ corners.
The statement partly read, “Manufacturers of both aircraft and critical components are still struggling to restore output to pre-pandemic levels following severe and lasting disruptions of global supply chains, as well as issues at the manufacturer level. As a result, despite global traffic surpassing 2019 levels last year, aircraft deliveries remained 30 per cent below their pre-pandemic peak.
“The combination of strong demand and limited supply has extended waiting times for new aircraft significantly. Over the past three decades, lead times have ranged from two to three years, slightly longer for widebody aircraft and shorter for regional aircraft.
“However, this timeline has increased steadily since the late 2010s, reaching a record 5.3 years in 2024. This means that airlines are only now receiving aircraft that were ordered in or prior to 2019.
“With new aircraft in short supply, airlines are increasingly turning to the secondary market, but availability among lessors remains extremely tight, and lease rates have surged to record highs. In response, carriers have maximised fleet utilisation, with average daily aircraft usage surpassing 8.5 hours for the first time ever in 2024.”
