Analysts have projected that inflationary pressure in Nigeria may ease in April, but warned that manufacturers are likely to experience a slowdown due to ongoing macroeconomic conditions.
An economic and financial analyst, Rotimi Fakayejo, while speaking on recent economic developments, explained that although fuel prices increased slightly after the fasting period, the overall impact was not significant.
“It was in March that Dangote adjusted the fuel price before the fasting period. It increased after the fasting when the Naira-for-Crude deal started and things began to increase. But the change was not significant; it’s bearable. If you look at food inflation, it came down. In the time being, we won’t see the same happen in April,” he said.
According to him, despite the slight increases, there is no major economic activity expected to drive inflation higher in April, suggesting a possible reversal or downward trend.
He noted, “The recent CPI rebasing is not masking deepened inflationary pressures. The inflationary pressure was reduced in the next month. The implication of triggered inflation is that people will spend more, and the general economy — in terms of producers — will be losing out.”
Fakayejo warned that companies may experience lower sales despite maintaining revenue, leading to higher unsold stock. “The companies’ total revenue will remain the same, but they will have more stock because they will be selling less. It’s a negative for both consumers and also the producers of goods and services. For the next few weeks, manufacturers will experience a downtrend,” he added.
Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer of Cowry Treasurers Limited, Charles Sanni, said that while the current inflationary trends might not prompt an immediate interest rate hike, the Central Bank of Nigeria could be compelled to act at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting due to unfolding economic realities.
“It might not necessarily make the CBN take a quick interest rate decision. However, will the CBN be pushed to make some decisions in the MPC? Some events have unfolded which will definitely affect the CBN’s decision,” Sanni said.
He noted that Nigeria’s economy is not insulated from global developments, particularly the depreciation of the naira and international macroeconomic shifts. “When you look at the things that are happening globally, Nigeria is not an isolated nation, and the tariff will not significantly affect the country. T
he naira depreciation — and the truth is — there are macroeconomic parameters that the CBN should consider to raise the rate in order to curb inflationary pressure,” he said.
Sanni added that the recent significant rise in treasury bills signals that the CBN’s rate-setting committee may need to take bold steps to manage the economy.
“There was a significant rise in T-bills, which speaks to the fact that the MPC committee will make important decisions. No one can say what might happen in one month’s time. As a monetary policy authority, we hope that the government will take some actions to manage the economy,” he said.
He warned that failure to adopt growth-stimulating policies could further worsen inflation. “If we need a growth stimulant and we are not prepared for that, what it means is that we will see a further rise in inflation,” Sanni noted.
He explained that sustained pressure on the government could also trigger exchange rate instability and increase debt servicing costs, which might influence the CBN to raise rates. “If the government is under pressure, then the exchange rate will be under pressure, and the debt servicing — which means the CBN will most likely increase the rate. The MPC will take some decisions, except the government revisits their budget,” he said.
Commenting on the capital market rally, Sanni attributed it to dividend payouts but warned that rising yields in fixed-income instruments could shift investor interest away from equities. “The rally seen in the capital market in Nigeria is as a result of the dividend payout. If there is a rise in the fixed-income securities yield, it is a sweetener for people to move from the equities market,” he added.
The Punch reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 24.23 per cent in March 2025, up from 23.18 per cent recorded in February, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The figure represents a 1.05 percentage point increase, marking a sustained rise in the general price level across the country.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose sharply by 3.90 per cent in March, compared to 2.04 per cent in February, indicating that the average price level increased at a faster pace.
The report read, “The Consumer Price Index rose to 117.34 in March 2025 reflecting a 4.40-point increase from the preceding month.
“In March 2025, the Headline inflation rate rose to 24.23 per cent relative to the February 2025 headline inflation rate of 23.18 per cent. Looking at the movement, the March 2025 Headline inflation rate showed an increase of 1.05 per cent compared to the February 2025 Headline inflation rate.
“Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in March 2025 was 3.90 per cent, which was 1.85 per cent higher than the rate recorded in February 2025 (2.04 per cent). This means that in March 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level is higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in February 2025.”
The statistics office noted that the major drivers of the year-on-year inflation rate were food and non-alcoholic beverages, which contributed 9.28 percentage points; followed by restaurants and accommodation services (2.99 per cent), transport (2.47 per cent), and housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels (1.95 per cent).
Other divisions with notable contributions include education, health, and clothing and footwear.
Food inflation stood at 21.79 per cent in March, up from 20.01 per cent in February.
On a monthly basis, food prices rose by 2.18 per cent, driven by price increases in fresh ginger, yellow garri, Ofada rice, honey, fresh pepper, potatoes, and plantain flour. The persistent rise in food prices continues to weigh heavily on household incomes and consumption patterns.
Core inflation, which excludes prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 24.43 per cent year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 3.73 per cent, compared to 2.52 per cent recorded in February.
The core index reflects the broader impact of inflation on non-food goods and services.
Inflation was higher in urban areas, where the year-on-year rate was 26.12 per cent, compared to 20.89 per cent in rural areas.
On a monthly basis, urban inflation rose by 3.96 per cent, while rural inflation increased by 3.73 per cent. The disparity highlights the greater vulnerability of urban consumers to price shocks, particularly in housing, transport, and service-related costs.
Among the states, Kaduna recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 33.33 per cent, followed by Osun at 32.08 per cent and Kebbi at 30.74 per cent.
