As the curtains draw on the 2024/25 Nigeria Premier Football League season today, the fight for survival takes centre stage in a nail-biting climax that will define futures and rewrite fates. While Remo Stars have deservedly claimed the title and continental spots have been secured by Rivers United and Abia Warriors, the bottom of the table tells a much more chaotic story.
With only two relegation slots left and four teams mathematically in danger, the final whistle on matchday 38 promises either euphoria or heartbreak.
Already-relegated Lobi Stars are rooted to the bottom with just 25 points, enduring a dismal campaign in which they failed to register a single away win. Sunshine Stars is also deep in the mire, while Heartland and Akwa United square off in Owerri in what is perhaps the league’s most consequential fixture of the season.
The encounter at the Dan Anyiam Stadium is more than a relegation scrap, it is a meeting of fallen giants, each with rich NPFL legacies now staring into the abyss.
Heartland, two times NPFL champions, are fighting to avoid a record fourth relegation in nine years. Their survival does not rest solely in their hands. A win will only suffice if Niger Tornadoes lose and neither Katsina United nor El-Kanemi Warriors win. Anything less, and they risk becoming the first club in NPFL history to suffer consecutive relegations, having stayed up last season only due to the ineligibility of Beyond Limits FA.
The Naze Millionaires have been marginally stable in recent form, with two wins in their last five matches and an overall tally of 11 wins and 12 draws this season.
Akwa United, crowned champions just four years ago, are now tethered to survival by the thinnest thread. With 44 points, the Promise Keepers must win in Owerri and hope that both Katsina United and El-Kanemi Warriors falter. A draw or a win by either of those two sides will doom Akwa, who have only managed 12 victories this season and have lost 17 times, the most among the five relegation-threatened sides.
Their form heading into the game also does not show promise, with two wins in their last five games and defensive frailties that have been their undoing. They have conceded 37 times, scoring just 34, and have failed to keep opponents at bay in 70 per cent of their fixtures.
In Maiduguri, El-Kanemi Warriors host Sunshine Stars in a direct relegation six-pointer with complex ramifications. El-Kanemi sit on 46 points and know that victory guarantees their stay. Anything less opens the door for Heartland or Akwa United to leapfrog them, depending on results elsewhere.
El-Kanemi’s campaign has been one of frustrating draws and near-misses. With 13 draws, the most of any side in the relegation zone, they have struggled to close games out. Their last win came 18 days ago, and they have secured just one victory in their past ten matches. Despite the malaise, they boast the resilience of a team that has only lost six times in their last 13 outings.
Sunshine Stars, on the other hand, have already been relegated. With 41 points and a dismal goal difference of -16, the Owena Whales ended a 17-year stay in the top flight after playing home away from home all season long. Their defensive record is the second-worst in the league, having conceded 50 times. That fragility, coupled with a run of three defeats in their last four games, spells trouble for the Ondo side.
Katsina United, the Changi Boys, have 47 points and occupy 15th place. They will host Kwara United, who have nothing but pride to play for, already safe in 12th with 50 points. Katsina’s mission is straightforward: win and survive. A draw or loss, however, invites danger.
Their attack has been anaemic, with just 29 goals all season, the second-worst in the league while their defence has kept them alive, conceding 36 times. They have been inconsistent lately, winning two and losing two of their last five, and must summon courage for one last push at home.
Another team that may have a big say in the relegation puzzle is Kano Pillars with Niger Tornadoes also in the mix and sitting 14th with 48 points, just three ahead of Heartland. A defeat to Sai Masu Gida in Kaduna could see them drop into the red zone if Heartland and Akwa win their matches.
The Ikon Allah Boys have only one win in their last five, and their 44 goals conceded remain a lingering concern. Their recent home form has been unsteady, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight fixtures. However, they are unbeaten in their last two and may find solace in Pillars’ inconsistent form.
Despite being safe in 7th with 53 points, Pillars have alternated wins and losses in their last five, and their 42 goals scored makes them one of the more potent attacking sides in mid-table.
At the other end of the table, Lobi Stars will say goodbye to the top flight with a final fixture against Bendel Insurance. It has been a dismal campaign for the Pride of Benue, who registered only five wins and a league-low 27 goals. They, alongside Katsina, failed to win any match away from home and are statistically the worst team this season.
The odds are stacked against a fairytale farewell for Lobi as Insurance are still fighting to finish as high as fourth. With 56 points, they are tied with Ikorodu City and just a point above Enyimba, so motivation will be high.
All matches will kick off simultaneously on Sunday, ensuring maximum drama in every corner of the league. The spotlight is firmly on the relegation dogfight and every goal could be the difference between staying up or dropping into the Nigeria National League.
Elsewhere, champions Remo Stars will round off their historic campaign with a celebratory fixture against Bayelsa United in Yenagoa. The Sky Blue Stars will be aiming to end the season in style, while the Restoration Boys, comfortably mid-table, will look to give their fans a memorable farewell to the campaign.
Rivers United, who have secured a place on the continent will host Nasarawa United in Port Harcourt. Enyimba, who sit sixth, will welcome 10th-placed Plateau United to Aba with nothing at stake aside from both teams avoiding ending the season with a whimper.
Shooting Stars will entertain Rangers International in Ibadan in a meeting between two mid-table sides. With both the Oluyole Warriors and Flying Antelopes no longer in contention for continental places or facing relegation while in Lagos, Ikorodu City will face Abia Warriors in a fixture that holds meaning only for the visitors. The Oga Boys’ dream of continental qualification ended last weekend following a 4–1 thrashing by Remo Stars in Ikenne, making it mathematically impossible to catch the Pride of Abia, who are now guaranteed third place and a historic ticket to the CAF Confederation Cup.
