The World Bank recently released the global growth projections for 2024, with the expectation that Nigeria will grow by 3.3 per cent this year, although global economy is set for weakest half-decade performance in 30 Years.
According to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, Nigeria’s growth was reviewed upward from 2.9 per cent projected in October last year to 3.3 per cent for this year and 3.7 per cent for 2025.
The upward review of Nigeria’s growth was based on expectation of that the reforms in the country would begin to yield fruits. Also the country is expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2025 as macro-fiscal reforms gradually bear fruits.
The baseline forecast implies that per capita income will reach its pre-pandemic level only in 2025. Growth is expected to be driven mainly by agriculture, construction, services, and trade. Inflation should gradually ease as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and removal of fuel subsidies fade. These structural reforms are expected to boost fiscal revenue over the forecast period.
The report notes that the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades. Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic.
World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, Indermit Gill, noted that “Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries, especially the poorest, stuck in a trap: with paralysing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people.
“That would obstruct progress on many global priorities. Opportunities still exist to turn the tide. This report offers a clear way forward: it spells out the transformation that can be achieved if governments act now to accelerate investment and strengthen fiscal policy frameworks.”
World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose, commenting said “Investment booms have the potential to transform developing economies and help them speed up the energy transition and achieve a wide variety of development objectives.
“To spark such booms, developing economies need to implement comprehensive policy packages to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border trade and financial flows, improve the investment climate, and strengthen the quality of institutions.”
